Economics
Nigeria Q2 2026 Real GDP Growth
Resolved Oct 3, 2026, 3:56 PM (UTC)
Resolved: 4.0% – 4.9%
At close: Below 2.0% 20¢ · 2.0% – 2.9% 20¢ · 3.0% – 3.9% 20¢ · 4.0% – 4.9% 20¢ · 5.0% or above 20¢
Reason: Multiple credible Nigerian news outlets (Punch, Leadership, Daily Trust) all report that the NBS published Q2 2026 year-on-year real GDP growth of 4.43%, which falls in the 4.0%–4.9% range (outcome 3).
20% Below 2.0%
Live probabilities
- Below 2.0%20%
- 2.0% – 2.9%20%
- 3.0% – 3.9%20%
- 4.0% – 4.9%20%
- 5.0% or above20%
Oct 3, 2026
Market Resolved
Below 2.0%
Lost2.0% – 2.9%
Lost3.0% – 3.9%
Lost4.0% – 4.9%
Won5.0% or above
LostResolved in accordance with the Event Rules and Rulebook.

Below 2.0%
4.9x20%20%

2.0% – 2.9%
4.9x20%20%

3.0% – 3.9%
4.9x20%20%

4.0% – 4.9%
4.9x20%20%Won

5.0% or above
4.9x20%20%
Nigeria’s year-on-year real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026, as first published by the NBS.
Discussion
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