Finance
Fed Decision in September 2026
Resolved Sep 18, 2026, 3:17 AM (UTC)
Resolved: Raise by 25bp
At close: Cut by 50bp or more 20¢ · Cut by 25bp 20¢ · No change 20¢ · Raise by 25bp 20¢ · Raise by 50bp or more 20¢
Reason: The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement says the Committee raised the target range by 1/4 percentage point (25bp), which matches outcome index 3 (Raise by 25bp).
20% Cut by 50bp or more
Fed Decision in September 2026
Cut by 50bp or more
Market Resolved
Raise by 25bp
Winning positions have been paid out automatically.
Live probabilities
- Cut by 50bp or more20%
- Cut by 25bp20%
- No change20%
- Raise by 25bp20%
- Raise by 50bp or more20%
Sep 18, 2026
Market Resolved
Cut by 50bp or more
LostCut by 25bp
LostNo change
LostRaise by 25bp
WonRaise by 50bp or more
LostResolved in accordance with the Event Rules and Rulebook.
Cut by 50bp or more
4.9x20%20%
Cut by 25bp
4.9x20%20%
No change
4.9x20%20%
Raise by 25bp
4.9x20%20%Won
Raise by 50bp or more
4.9x20%20%
What the Federal Reserve does with its target rate at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
Discussion
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